FIFA World Cup 2026Wed Jun 24 · 12:00 PDT · Lumen Field, Seattle
Full time✓ Model's call was correct
Qatar1–3Bosnia and Herzegovina
Our pre-kickoff call — result: BIH win
27%
QAT
30%
Draw
43%
BIH●
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Qatar
23.4%
Draw
28.7%
Bosnia and Herzegovina
47.9%
Key Insight
Bosnia and Herzegovina are favoured at 48%, projected to outscore Qatar 1.4–0.9 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
0 - 113.7%
1 - 113.3%
0 - 010.8%
0 - 29.8%
1 - 28.7%
Scoreline Distribution
Bosnia and Herzegovina Goals
012345+
Qatar Goals
Match Confidence
95
/100
High
Based on a 12-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
QAT+10 pp
23.4%
13.2%
Draw+10 pp
28.7%
18.8%
BIH-20 pp
47.9%
68.0%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Qatar
23.4%
Draw
28.7%
Bosnia and Herzegovina
47.9%
Match Confidence
95
/100
High
Based on a 12-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
QAT+10 pp
23.4%
13.2%
Draw+10 pp
28.7%
18.8%
BIH-20 pp
47.9%
68.0%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
0 - 113.7%
1 - 113.3%
0 - 010.8%
0 - 29.8%
1 - 28.7%
Scoreline Distribution
Bosnia and Herzegovina Goals
012345+
Qatar Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
QAT
0.89
Total
2.28
BIH
1.39
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline13.7%
Over 2.5 goals39.8%
Under 2.5 goals60.2%
Both teams to score44.9%
QAT clean sheet24.9%
BIH clean sheet41.0%
Scoreline Distribution
Bosnia and Herzegovina Goals
012345+
Qatar Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
0 - 113.7%
1 - 113.3%
0 - 010.8%
0 - 29.8%
1 - 28.7%
Match Confidence
95
/100
High
Based on a 12-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Qatar
23.4%
Draw
28.7%
Bosnia and Herzegovina
47.9%
Key Insight
Bosnia and Herzegovina are favoured at 48%, projected to outscore Qatar 1.4–0.9 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Qatar are projected to generate 0.9 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Bosnia and Herzegovina are projected for 1.4 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Qatar.