FIFA World Cup 2026Thu Jun 18 · 12:00 PDT · SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles
Full time✓ Model's call was correct
Switzerland4–1Bosnia and Herzegovina
Our pre-kickoff call — result: SUI win
62%
SUI●
24%
Draw
14%
BIH
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Switzerland
69.2%
Draw
20.5%
Bosnia and Herzegovina
10.3%
Key Insight
Switzerland are favoured at 69%, projected to outscore Bosnia and Herzegovina 2.0–0.6 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 014.3%
1 - 014%
3 - 09.6%
1 - 19.6%
2 - 19%
Scoreline Distribution
Bosnia and Herzegovina Goals
012345+
Switzerland Goals
Match Confidence
83
/100
High
Based on a 16-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
SUI+7 pp
69.2%
62.1%
Draw-2 pp
20.5%
22.7%
BIH-5 pp
10.3%
15.2%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Switzerland
69.2%
Draw
20.5%
Bosnia and Herzegovina
10.3%
Match Confidence
83
/100
High
Based on a 16-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
SUI+7 pp
69.2%
62.1%
Draw-2 pp
20.5%
22.7%
BIH-5 pp
10.3%
15.2%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 014.3%
1 - 014%
3 - 09.6%
1 - 19.6%
2 - 19%
Scoreline Distribution
Bosnia and Herzegovina Goals
012345+
Switzerland Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
SUI
1.98
Total
2.61
BIH
0.63
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline14.3%
Over 2.5 goals48.9%
Under 2.5 goals51.1%
Both teams to score40.9%
SUI clean sheet53.1%
BIH clean sheet13.6%
Scoreline Distribution
Bosnia and Herzegovina Goals
012345+
Switzerland Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 014.3%
1 - 014%
3 - 09.6%
1 - 19.6%
2 - 19%
Match Confidence
83
/100
High
Based on a 16-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Switzerland
69.2%
Draw
20.5%
Bosnia and Herzegovina
10.3%
Key Insight
Switzerland are favoured at 69%, projected to outscore Bosnia and Herzegovina 2.0–0.6 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Switzerland are projected to generate 2.0 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Bosnia and Herzegovina are projected for 0.6 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Switzerland.