After extra time✓ Model's call was correct
Spain1–0Argentina
Our pre-kickoff call — result: ESP win
38%
ESP●
31%
Draw
31%
ARG
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Spain
42.3%
Draw
30.9%
Argentina
26.8%
Key Insight
Spain are favoured at 42%, projected to outscore Argentina 1.2–0.9 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 014.3%
1 - 113.9%
0 - 013%
0 - 110.6%
2 - 08.8%
Scoreline Distribution
Argentina Goals
012345+
Spain Goals
Match Confidence
81
/100
High
Based on a 17-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
ESP0 pp
42.3%
42.6%
Draw-1 pp
30.9%
31.9%
ARG+1 pp
26.8%
25.5%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Spain
42.3%
Draw
30.9%
Argentina
26.8%
Match Confidence
81
/100
High
Based on a 17-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
ESP0 pp
42.3%
42.6%
Draw-1 pp
30.9%
31.9%
ARG+1 pp
26.8%
25.5%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 014.3%
1 - 113.9%
0 - 013%
0 - 110.6%
2 - 08.8%
Scoreline Distribution
Argentina Goals
012345+
Spain Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
ESP
1.19
Total
2.08
ARG
0.89
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline14.3%
Over 2.5 goals34.5%
Under 2.5 goals65.5%
Both teams to score41.6%
ESP clean sheet41.0%
ARG clean sheet30.3%
Scoreline Distribution
Argentina Goals
012345+
Spain Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 014.3%
1 - 113.9%
0 - 013%
0 - 110.6%
2 - 08.8%
Match Confidence
81
/100
High
Based on a 17-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Spain
42.3%
Draw
30.9%
Argentina
26.8%
Key Insight
Spain are favoured at 42%, projected to outscore Argentina 1.2–0.9 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Spain are projected to generate 1.2 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Argentina are projected for 0.9 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Spain.