Full time✓ Model's call was correct
England1–2Argentina
Our pre-kickoff call — result: ARG win
28%
ENG
31%
Draw
41%
ARG●
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
England
29%
Draw
30.8%
Argentina
40.2%
Key Insight
Argentina are favoured at 40%, projected to outscore England 1.2–1.0 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 114%
0 - 113.5%
0 - 012.6%
1 - 010.9%
0 - 28.1%
Scoreline Distribution
Argentina Goals
012345+
England Goals
Match Confidence
78
/100
High
Based on a 18-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
ENG-7 pp
29.0%
36.0%
Draw-2 pp
30.8%
33.0%
ARG+9 pp
40.2%
31.0%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
England
29%
Draw
30.8%
Argentina
40.2%
Match Confidence
78
/100
High
Based on a 18-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
ENG-7 pp
29.0%
36.0%
Draw-2 pp
30.8%
33.0%
ARG+9 pp
40.2%
31.0%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 114%
0 - 113.5%
0 - 012.6%
1 - 010.9%
0 - 28.1%
Scoreline Distribution
Argentina Goals
012345+
England Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
ENG
0.95
Total
2.12
ARG
1.17
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline14.0%
Over 2.5 goals35.5%
Under 2.5 goals64.5%
Both teams to score42.9%
ENG clean sheet31.0%
ARG clean sheet38.6%
Scoreline Distribution
Argentina Goals
012345+
England Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 114%
0 - 113.5%
0 - 012.6%
1 - 010.9%
0 - 28.1%
Match Confidence
78
/100
High
Based on a 18-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
England
29%
Draw
30.8%
Argentina
40.2%
Key Insight
Argentina are favoured at 40%, projected to outscore England 1.2–1.0 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
England are projected to generate 1.0 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Argentina are projected for 1.2 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours England.