Full time✓ Model's call was correct
France0–2Spain
Our pre-kickoff call — result: ESP win
31%
FRA
31%
Draw
38%
ESP●
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
France
18.1%
Draw
26.7%
Spain
55.1%
Key Insight
Spain are favoured at 55%, projected to outscore France 1.6–0.8 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
0 - 114.7%
1 - 112.3%
0 - 211.7%
0 - 010.3%
1 - 29.1%
Scoreline Distribution
Spain Goals
012345+
France Goals
Match Confidence
74
/100
High
Based on a 19-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
FRA-19 pp
18.1%
37.0%
Draw-6 pp
26.7%
32.6%
ESP+25 pp
55.1%
30.4%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
France
18.1%
Draw
26.7%
Spain
55.1%
Match Confidence
74
/100
High
Based on a 19-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
FRA-19 pp
18.1%
37.0%
Draw-6 pp
26.7%
32.6%
ESP+25 pp
55.1%
30.4%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
0 - 114.7%
1 - 112.3%
0 - 211.7%
0 - 010.3%
1 - 29.1%
Scoreline Distribution
Spain Goals
012345+
France Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
FRA
0.78
Total
2.32
ESP
1.54
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline14.7%
Over 2.5 goals41.0%
Under 2.5 goals59.0%
Both teams to score43.0%
FRA clean sheet21.3%
ESP clean sheet46.0%
Scoreline Distribution
Spain Goals
012345+
France Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
0 - 114.7%
1 - 112.3%
0 - 211.7%
0 - 010.3%
1 - 29.1%
Match Confidence
74
/100
High
Based on a 19-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
France
18.1%
Draw
26.7%
Spain
55.1%
Key Insight
Spain are favoured at 55%, projected to outscore France 1.6–0.8 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
France are projected to generate 0.8 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Spain are projected for 1.6 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours France.