FIFA World Cup 2026Sun Jul 12 · 01:00 UTC
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Argentina
56%
Draw
26.9%
Switzerland
17.1%
Key Insight
Argentina are favoured at 56%, projected to outscore Switzerland 1.5–0.7 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 015.5%
2 - 012.2%
1 - 112.2%
0 - 010.9%
2 - 18.9%
Scoreline Distribution
Switzerland Goals
012345+
Argentina Goals
Match Confidence
74
/100
High
Based on a 19-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
ARG0 pp
56.0%
56.4%
Draw0 pp
26.9%
26.9%
SUI0 pp
17.1%
16.7%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Argentina
56%
Draw
26.9%
Switzerland
17.1%
Match Confidence
74
/100
High
Based on a 19-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
ARG0 pp
56.0%
56.4%
Draw0 pp
26.9%
26.9%
SUI0 pp
17.1%
16.7%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 015.5%
2 - 012.2%
1 - 112.2%
0 - 010.9%
2 - 18.9%
Scoreline Distribution
Switzerland Goals
012345+
Argentina Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
ARG
1.53
Total
2.25
SUI
0.73
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline15.5%
Over 2.5 goals39.3%
Under 2.5 goals60.7%
Both teams to score41.0%
ARG clean sheet48.3%
SUI clean sheet21.6%
Scoreline Distribution
Switzerland Goals
012345+
Argentina Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 015.5%
2 - 012.2%
1 - 112.2%
0 - 010.9%
2 - 18.9%
Match Confidence
74
/100
High
Based on a 19-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Argentina
56%
Draw
26.9%
Switzerland
17.1%
Key Insight
Argentina are favoured at 56%, projected to outscore Switzerland 1.5–0.7 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Argentina are projected to generate 1.5 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Switzerland are projected for 0.7 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Argentina.