FIFA World Cup 2026Sun Jul 12 · 01:00 UTC
After extra time✓ Model's call was correct
Argentina3–1Switzerland
Our pre-kickoff call — result: ARG win
56%
ARG●
27%
Draw
17%
SUI
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Argentina
60.3%
Draw
25.1%
Switzerland
14.5%
Key Insight
Argentina are favoured at 60%, projected to outscore Switzerland 1.7–0.7 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 015.5%
2 - 013.2%
1 - 111.4%
0 - 010.1%
2 - 19%
Scoreline Distribution
Switzerland Goals
012345+
Argentina Goals
Match Confidence
76
/100
High
Based on a 19-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
ARG+4 pp
60.3%
55.9%
Draw-4 pp
25.1%
28.7%
SUI-1 pp
14.5%
15.3%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Want deeper insights?
Join the waitlist for advanced simulations, full distributions, and model explanations.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Argentina
60.3%
Draw
25.1%
Switzerland
14.5%
Match Confidence
76
/100
High
Based on a 19-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
ARG+4 pp
60.3%
55.9%
Draw-4 pp
25.1%
28.7%
SUI-1 pp
14.5%
15.3%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 015.5%
2 - 013.2%
1 - 111.4%
0 - 010.1%
2 - 19%
Scoreline Distribution
Switzerland Goals
012345+
Argentina Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
ARG
1.65
Total
2.33
SUI
0.68
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline15.5%
Over 2.5 goals41.4%
Under 2.5 goals58.6%
Both teams to score40.5%
ARG clean sheet50.5%
SUI clean sheet19.1%
Scoreline Distribution
Switzerland Goals
012345+
Argentina Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 015.5%
2 - 013.2%
1 - 111.4%
0 - 010.1%
2 - 19%
Match Confidence
76
/100
High
Based on a 19-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Argentina
60.3%
Draw
25.1%
Switzerland
14.5%
Key Insight
Argentina are favoured at 60%, projected to outscore Switzerland 1.7–0.7 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Argentina are projected to generate 1.7 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Switzerland are projected for 0.7 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Argentina.