FIFA World Cup 2026Sat Jun 13 · 12:00 PDT · Levi's Stadium, San Francisco
Full time✗ Model's call missed
Switzerland1–1Qatar
Our pre-kickoff call — result: Draw
75%
SUI
18%
Draw●
7%
QAT
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Switzerland
80.4%
Draw
14.3%
Qatar
5.3%
Key Insight
Switzerland are favoured at 80%, projected to outscore Qatar 2.5–0.5 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 015.5%
3 - 012.9%
1 - 012.3%
4 - 08%
2 - 17.8%
Scoreline Distribution
Qatar Goals
012345+
Switzerland Goals
Match Confidence
100
/100
High
Based on a 9-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
SUI-1 pp
80.4%
81.2%
Draw+2 pp
14.3%
12.7%
QAT-1 pp
5.3%
6.1%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Switzerland
80.4%
Draw
14.3%
Qatar
5.3%
Match Confidence
100
/100
High
Based on a 9-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
SUI-1 pp
80.4%
81.2%
Draw+2 pp
14.3%
12.7%
QAT-1 pp
5.3%
6.1%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 015.5%
3 - 012.9%
1 - 012.3%
4 - 08%
2 - 17.8%
Scoreline Distribution
Qatar Goals
012345+
Switzerland Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
SUI
2.42
Total
2.92
QAT
0.50
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline15.5%
Over 2.5 goals57.2%
Under 2.5 goals42.8%
Both teams to score36.3%
SUI clean sheet60.6%
QAT clean sheet8.4%
Scoreline Distribution
Qatar Goals
012345+
Switzerland Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 015.5%
3 - 012.9%
1 - 012.3%
4 - 08%
2 - 17.8%
Match Confidence
100
/100
High
Based on a 9-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Switzerland
80.4%
Draw
14.3%
Qatar
5.3%
Key Insight
Switzerland are favoured at 80%, projected to outscore Qatar 2.5–0.5 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Switzerland are projected to generate 2.5 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Qatar are projected for 0.5 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Switzerland.