FIFA World Cup 2026Thu Jun 18 · 19:00 CST · Estadio Akron, Guadalajara
Full time✓ Model's call was correct
Mexico1–0South Korea
Our pre-kickoff call — result: MEX win
49%
MEX●
28%
Draw
23%
KOR
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Mexico
59.6%
Draw
24.5%
South Korea
15.9%
Key Insight
Mexico are favoured at 60%, projected to outscore South Korea 1.7–0.8 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 013.6%
2 - 012.1%
1 - 111.5%
2 - 19.4%
0 - 08.6%
Scoreline Distribution
South Korea Goals
012345+
Mexico Goals
Match Confidence
90
/100
High
Based on a 14-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
MEX+13 pp
59.6%
46.3%
Draw-6 pp
24.5%
30.6%
KOR-7 pp
15.9%
23.0%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Want deeper insights?
Join the waitlist for advanced simulations, full distributions, and model explanations.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Mexico
59.6%
Draw
24.5%
South Korea
15.9%
Match Confidence
90
/100
High
Based on a 14-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
MEX+13 pp
59.6%
46.3%
Draw-6 pp
24.5%
30.6%
KOR-7 pp
15.9%
23.0%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 013.6%
2 - 012.1%
1 - 111.5%
2 - 19.4%
0 - 08.6%
Scoreline Distribution
South Korea Goals
012345+
Mexico Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
MEX
1.72
Total
2.50
KOR
0.78
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline13.6%
Over 2.5 goals45.9%
Under 2.5 goals54.1%
Both teams to score45.0%
MEX clean sheet45.9%
KOR clean sheet17.7%
Scoreline Distribution
South Korea Goals
012345+
Mexico Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 013.6%
2 - 012.1%
1 - 111.5%
2 - 19.4%
0 - 08.6%
Match Confidence
90
/100
High
Based on a 14-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Mexico
59.6%
Draw
24.5%
South Korea
15.9%
Key Insight
Mexico are favoured at 60%, projected to outscore South Korea 1.7–0.8 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Mexico are projected to generate 1.7 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
South Korea are projected for 0.8 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Mexico.